Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that
lack of a risk does not mean zero risk.
Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190845 SPC AC 190845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020
Valid 221200Z – 271200Z
Depending on the track of Tropical Cyclone Beta, there may be a continued low-end severe risk along parts of the middle/upper TX Coast into LA and perhaps the lower MS Valley from Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday. However, far too much uncertainty exists regarding Beta’s location at this extended time frame to include any severe probabilities. Otherwise, severe potential across the remainder of the CONUS will likely remain limited through Day 6/Thursday, as more substantial low-level moisture should be confined to parts of coastal TX/LA and the lower MS Valley. By the end of next week, large differences are apparent in guidance regarding the synoptic-scale upper pattern across the CONUS. Some potential for greater low-level moisture return appears possible across parts of the MS Valley, Upper Midwest, and vicinity by next Saturday, but predictability remains low.
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT